The 2016 NHL Draft: A Decade Later, Who Really Won?
The 2016 NHL Draft, held in Buffalo, was a pivotal moment for many franchises. But with the benefit of hindsight, how would the first round look if teams could redo their picks? Let’s dive into the careers of these players, not just as a re-ranking exercise, but as a deeper exploration of what makes a draft pick truly successful.
Auston Matthews: The Undisputed No. 1
Why He’s Still No. 1: Auston Matthews has been nothing short of phenomenal. His 428 goals since 2016 are unmatched, and his ability to dominate at every level—from the NTDP to the NHL—is a testament to his talent. Personally, I think what makes Matthews so fascinating is how he’s redefined the role of the modern center. He’s not just a goal-scorer; he’s a leader, as evidenced by his captaincy for Team USA at the 2026 Olympics.
What Many Don’t Realize: Matthews’ success wasn’t just luck. John Lilley, the scout who championed him, saw something special in a 17-year-old playing against NHL veterans in Switzerland. That foresight is what separates good scouts from great ones.
Tage Thompson: The Late Bloomer
Why He’s Now a Top-3 Pick: Tage Thompson’s rise from the 26th pick to a top-3 contender is one of the draft’s most intriguing stories. His 47 goals in 2022-23 were a Sabres record, and his 160 goals since then place him sixth league-wide. In my opinion, Thompson’s story highlights the importance of patience in player development. He wasn’t an instant star, but he’s become the cornerstone of Buffalo’s resurgence.
A Detail That Stands Out: Thompson was traded to the Sabres as part of the Ryan O’Reilly deal. It’s a reminder that sometimes, the best moves are the ones that take time to pay off.
Brandon Hagel: The Sixth-Round Steal
Why He’s Now a Top-6 Pick: Brandon Hagel’s journey from the sixth round to a top-6 pick is a testament to hard work and adaptability. His 36 goals this season were a career-best, and his 0.83 points per game rank sixth among his draft class. What makes this particularly fascinating is how Hagel’s career trajectory mirrors the NHL’s evolving emphasis on speed and skill over size.
What This Really Suggests: Hagel’s success challenges the traditional draft narrative. Not every star is a first-round pick, and teams that overlook late-round gems do so at their own peril.
The Broader Implications
If you take a step back and think about it, the 2016 draft reveals larger trends in the NHL. The rise of players like Thompson and Hagel underscores the importance of development systems and scouting beyond the first round. Teams that invest in these areas are reaping the rewards.
A Deeper Question: Are we too quick to judge draft picks based on their initial performance? The careers of players like Adam Fox and Mikhail Sergachev, who were traded early but found success elsewhere, suggest that context matters more than we think.
Final Thoughts
The 2016 NHL Draft wasn’t just about who was picked first; it was about who adapted, who persevered, and who found the right fit. From my perspective, the real winners are the teams that understood the value of patience and potential. As we look ahead to future drafts, this is a lesson worth remembering.
